Perhaps most worryingly for Poland’s government, a win for Trzaskowski was also meant to offer certainty over Poland’s access to billions of euros of EU funds. Nawrocki’s victory now raises questions about this financial lifeblood as he is likely to block key judicial reforms.
“Tusk’s reform agenda is, if not dead in the water, then at least dying,” said Ben Stanley, an associate professor at the Center for the Study of Democracy at the SWPS University in Warsaw.
Populists in power
Nawrocki joins other Central European populists such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico who are skeptical about the EU, keen on Trump and his vision of destroying traditional elites and unleashing culture wars, and lukewarm toward Ukraine and its fight for survival against Russia.
“Trzaskowski’s win would have meant a unified voice for Warsaw on European and transatlantic affairs, but with Nawrocki, we’re likely to see a much stronger split — especially on eastern policy and relations with the U.S., which differ from Tusk’s approach,” said Adam Traczyk, executive director at More In Common, an international think tank.
During the campaign, Nawrocki visited Trump in the the Oval Office and received no-holds-barred support from U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
“Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country,” she said while in Poland, and denounced Trzaskowski as a “socialist” and “an absolute train wreck of a leader.”