First Secretary of the Socialists Olivier Faure is being challenged by an alliance of more moderate, social-democratic, pro-European forces within his party. And in response, he and his supporters may seek to provoke a crisis to galvanize grassroots support from the party’s left wing. It’s a turn that may involve him attempting to pull the plug on the group’s loose support for Bayrou, which was key to passing the belated 2025 budget in February.
Meanwhile, the center-right Republicans, who form a critical part of Bayrou’s minority government, are also in turmoil. The party is set to elect a new leader this month, and their current President Laurent Wauquiez faces the prospect of a humiliating defeat by a senior member of Bayrou’s government — the hard-line and popular Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau.
This internal leadership contest threatens to become a battle between party members who support an alliance with President Emmanuel Macron’s center and those — like Wauquiez — who detest it. Much like the Socialists on the left, the Republicans can’t seem to revive their past glories while a strong Macronist, or post-Macronist, center survives. And if Wauquiez loses, he may try to explode the coalition.
Then, there’s Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, which is considering whether and how to cause mischief in retaliation for the five-year ban from public office she received following her conviction for embezzlement last month.
If all this weren’t problematic enough, Bayrou’s own position has also been weakened by a nagging scandal from 30 years ago, concerning allegations of violence and sexual abuse at a Catholic school near his constituency at Pau in the Pyrenees when he was education minister. In February, Bayrou told the National Assembly he knew little to nothing about the allegations at the time. Yet, his statement has been contradicted in recent days by, among others, his own daughter.
The prime minister is set to appear before a parliamentary committee investigating the affair later today, and an unconvincing performance will increase both media and opposition pressure for his removal from office.