“I am sure that there will be some reduction of U.S. presence in Europe,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe.
Estimates of the number of U.S. forces in Europe range from 70,000 permanent troops to 90,000. But all estimates show a marked decrease from the 1950s, during the Cold War’s most tense years, when over 400,000 U.S. troops were stationed on the continent.
According to analysts and current and former U.S. military officers, withdrawing — or even reducing — American troop numbers in Europe would significantly reduce deterrence against Russia and cost money to both Europeans and Americans. A report from Germany’s Economic Institute (IW Cologne) warned this week that it could take 10 to 12 years for Europe to replace key U.S. military capabilities.
“It’s my advice to maintain that force posture as it is now,” U.S. European Command chief Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who’s also NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe, told U.S. lawmakers earlier this month.
“We collectively require a heavy ground presence, specifically to overcome that singular Russian advantage of being be able to put their forces at our border,” he said, adding that reducing the U.S. presence in Europe would inevitably “slow” a response to a Russian attack.
Cavoli retires this summer and Washington is reportedly mulling abandoning the NATO command after he leaves — allowing a European to take the job for the first time since the alliance was founded in 1949.