The EU predicted possible carbon leakage over 20 years ago. The 2003 Emissions Trading Directive highlighted this risk, notably for cement production. More than two decades later, the doomsday scenario is becoming reality.
Eastern cement floods Europe
Cement from Ukraine is flowing into the EU. In 2024 alone, Ukraine exported 1,713,000 tonnes of cement to the region — not only to Poland but also to Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. CEMBUREAU (European Cement Industry Association) data further confirms the growing influx. Meanwhile, one private plant in Ivano-Frankivsk is providing nearly two million tonnes per year (data from 2024) to the EU and is likely to raise its production capacity to over four million tonnes per year.
There has been a sharp rise in exports to Poland. According to the Analytical Centre of the Tax Administration Chamber in Warsaw, cement imports from Ukraine to Poland have increased by nearly 3,000 percent over the past five years (2019-24).
According to the Analytical Centre of the Tax Administration Chamber in Warsaw, cement imports from Ukraine to Poland have increased by nearly 3,000 percent over the past five years .
Polish cement plants provide jobs for over 4,000 people, with another 24,000 employed throughout the supply chain. Across Europe, more than 50,000 people work in the cement industry. Without remedial measures, thousands could lose their jobs, cement production will move outside the EU and the construction industry will become dependent on non-EU imports. Europe will lose another pillar of its economic, construction, defense and citizen security.
Cement and concrete are essential building materials, and especially for Poland, as an EU border country, they play a strategic role in the East Shield — a flagship project for EU collective security — as well as in other defense initiatives, including shelters.