Friedrich Merz and his conservative alliance
For months, Friedrich Merz has positioned himself as a kind of antidote to Scholz’s left-leaning coalition, hammering the government over its policies on migration and the economy. That strategy paid off, making them the dominant force in German politics once again.
The AfD
The far-right Alternative for Germany was in some ways the biggest winner of the night, recording double its 2021 result. The party’s relentless focus on immigration, economic grievances, and Russia-friendly positions struck a nerve with disillusioned voters, particularly in the East, where it has cemented itself as the strongest party.
The Left
After years of decline and an existential crisis sparked by star politician Sahra Wagenknecht’s defection, The Left has managed to pull off a stunning revival. The party, which traces some of its roots back to East Germany’s communist party, is doing particularly well at appealing to young voters across the country who are outraged by the rise of the far right.
The Losers
Friedrich Merz and his conservative alliance
We’re putting them in both sections. Although things aren’t too bad if you’re a clear victor and you become chancellor, it’s clear the vote-share wasn’t as high as opinion polls were suggesting just a few months ago. Merz will likely move to form a coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), leaving his conservatives exposed to attacks from the AfD — which is aiming to win the next national election.
Olaf Scholz and the SPD
This one’s categoric. The SPD, Germany’s oldest party, had the worst result in a national election in well over a century. After the results came in, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he will not serve a post in the next government. The party will try to reinvent itself in the next weeks with leadership changes. Despite the huge loss, the SPD is likely to remain in government in a two-party coalition with Merz’s conservatives.
The FDP
The fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by former finance minister Christian Lindner, was the biggest loser of the night. Falling under the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament, the party crashed out of the Bundestag, punished for its involvement in Scholz’s ill-fated, left-leaning coalition. After the result became clear, Lindner announced that he would retire from “active politics.”
Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)
Leftist icon Sahra Wagenknecht suffered the most heartbreaking loss of the night. Her new populist-left party soared in polls last year — and performed very well in three state elections in eastern Germany. But as the national election approached, the party lost steam, while the party she had previously defected from, The Left, gained ground. With all constituencies counted in the early hours of Monday morning, BSW garnered 4.972 percent, just shy of the threshold needed to gain parliamentary seats.
The Greens (and the climate)
The once-soaring Greens took a beating, with a drop of three percentage points from the last national parliamentary election. High energy prices and disillusionment with Economy Minister Robert Habeck’s economic policies pushed voters elsewhere, though the party didn’t lose as badly as its other coalition partners, the SPD and FDP. With Merz likely to seek a coalition with the SPD, the Greens aren’t likely to be part of the next government. That means policies to slow climate change are likely to take a back seat in the next government.