Another no-confidence vote
The real test is further down the line when the 2025 budget bill returns to parliament, which could lead to another vote of no-confidence in late January. It’s likely then that the far right will vote against the government, so Bayrou needs to pick off enough left-wing MPs to survive without alienating the conservatives and Macron’s troops who support the pensions reform.
On Sunday, the conservative parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez fired a warning shot, threatening to withdraw support for Bayrou’s government, which includes conservatives, if he gave too many concessions to the left.
In his speech, Bayrou said the retirement reform was necessary given France’s eye-watering budget deficit, which came in at 6.2 percent of gross domestic product for 2024. The veteran centrist politician accused lawmakers and leaders from across the political spectrum of dancing “a fatal tango” with debt that “brought us to the edge of the precipice.”
Both the center left and conservatives appear appeased for the moment.
But much as Barnier was finally ousted after seeking to build bridges with the far right, leaving France without a proper budget for 2025, Bayrou may also be knocked out if the mood shifts among the moderate left as he attempts to bring down the budget deficit.
His government would then be France’s fourth one to fall in the last year, which could carry catastrophic ramifications for French finances and the stability of the eurozone.