With Germany’s early election now scheduled for February following the collapse of Scholz’s three-party coalition last week, the chancellor appears to be depicting himself as a safer choice than his main opponent, conservative leader Friedrich Merz, who has taken a more hawkish stance on military support for Ukraine.
Merz, who leads the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has criticized Scholz for refusing to deliver long-range missiles to Ukraine. If the Kremlin refuses an ultimatum to stop bombing civilian targets in Ukraine, Merz has previously said, Berlin should deliver German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv.
Based on current polls, Merz is likely to become the country’s next chancellor. Germany’s conservatives are leading by a wide margin on 32 percent while Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is in third with 16 percent, just behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). But Scholz appears to believe he can recover some of the SPD’s lost ground by depicting himself as the prudent choice for dealing with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
The U.S., the U.K. and France have all provided long-range missiles to Ukraine, but Scholz has repeatedly refused to send Germany’s Taurus, arguing it could lead to a direct conflict with Russia.
Scholz has long sought to strike an awkward balance on Ukraine, touting the fact that Germany has provided more military aid to Kyiv than any other European country while also depicting himself as a leader who can prevent the war from spiraling out of control. Members of his SPD even refer to him as the “peace chancellor.”
That posture may prove difficult to maintain with Trump returning to the White House. The U.S. has been the largest contributor of military aid to Ukraine by far, but Trump has threatened to cut off assistance, which could force European countries to increase their support.
Merz, for his part, avoided directly addressing Ukraine aid during his parliamentary speech on Wednesday.
“Germany needs a fundamentally different policy, especially when it comes to migration, foreign, security and European policy as well as economic policy,” he said.