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If you filled up your car this Monday, you will have noticed that the amount you paid made it possible to put a little more fuel in the tank than has been usual since Donald Trump and Netanyahu attacked Iran at the end of February. This morning, petrol in Portugal was 9.5 cents cheaper and diesel had fallen by 9 cents.
It was meant to fall further. According to an estimate by the Automóvel Clube de Portugal (ACP) (source in Portuguese), the price of petrol should have dropped by 12.5 cents and that of diesel by 11 cents, but, because the government reduced the extraordinary discount on the Tax on Petroleum Products (ISP), prices at a filling station in central Lisbon this Monday were €1.92 for standard 95 petrol and €2.13 for special diesel, according to the simulator available (source in Portuguese) on the DGEG portal.
Ups and downs will continue, with slower falls
The fall in fuel prices could “be very slow”, according to the Minister for the Environment and Energy.
In comments to Rádio Renascença (source in Portuguese), Maria da Graça Carvalho acknowledged that the “trend is down”, but the minister recalls that this development depends on external factors, such as the “destruction of refineries”, not only in the Middle East but also “in Russia and Ukraine”, whose facilities will take “a long time to be rebuilt, repaired or even built from scratch”.
The war in Iran and the consequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the continued attacks on oil tankers trying to cross the Persian Gulf since March this year, are affecting fuel prices in Portugal and around the world.
Although Portugal secures supplies of crude oil from other regions, such as Brazil, with around 42.3% (in 2025 (source in Portuguese)), Algeria (19.6%), Nigeria (10.6%), Azerbaijan (10%) and the US (7.6%), our country is affected by price movements, “because this is global”, the minister also underlined.
On Friday, the price of a barrel of Brent closed at 98.68 dollars, 15.11 dollars (13.32%) less than the previous week (Friday 30 October), and at 15:00 this Monday Brent was trading at 94.00 dollars per barrel.
This easing in benchmark prices is a good indicator of further falls. However, the uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran means that fuel prices remain highly volatile.