Europe is once again trying to save face after US President Donald Trump blindsided the continent by striking a tailored deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to release thousands of tonnes of diesel that had until now been sanctioned.
The news alarmed Ukraine and its European allies, who have long been wary of Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy and his understanding of what a just and lasting peace means.
Tensions between the two sides of the Atlantic have never fully receded since February last year, when Trump unexpectedly called Putin and launched negotiations to end the war without consulting any European leader in advance.
That was the start of a series of unexpected developments that have rattled Europe and upended its long-held assumptions about the post-war international order. These include a hastily organised Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, a leaked 28-point plan heavily favourable to Moscow and a sanctions waiver for Russian crude oil.
The diesel deal, announced on Friday on Truth Social, added yet another chapter.
Trump then resorted to a familiar pattern: public attacks against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and calls for fresh elections. Ukraine’s constitution bars elections in wartime, a point that Zelenskyy tends to remind Trump.
“I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal because he could have made many deals and for some reason he never does,” Trump said to Moscow’s applause.
As in previous episodes, Europe finds itself scrambling to close ranks, rally behind Ukraine and make clear that, regardless of what the White House does and says, this side of the Atlantic will stay the agreed course.
“I think we need to be collectively serious. Today, I believe, we have no factual reason to change our position,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said emulating the Trump-Putin diesel deal was “out of the question” for Europe, despite rising energy prices.
“Russia will only negotiate seriously under pressure, and that is why we are sticking to our sanctions against Russia,” Merz told reporters.
A similar message echoed through Luxembourg as EU foreign ministers met and insisted that the pressure campaign on Moscow would continue unabated. Some openly decried the diesel deal, calling it regrettable and concerning.
Foreign ministers also approved a record-breaking addition of 1,600 names to the sanctions list, half of them linked to the production of ballistic missiles that fall on Ukraine. The contrast between the EU and the US could hardly have been starker.
“We showed unity today on these (1,600) listings,” High Representative Kaja Kallas said at the end of the meeting.
“But, of course, it would be much stronger if we had acted together with the US. Our message to the United States is that only pressure works with Russia.”
United in strain
Although the Trump-Putin deal fits a familiar pattern of erratic diplomacy that sidelines European interests, its grim context sets it apart.
The diesel deal comes at a time when Russia is rapidly escalating its attacks against Ukraine, killing scores of civilians and wrecking the levers that sustain the local economy, including power stations, data centres, warehouses and railways.
Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea has left Ukrainian farmers unable to send tonnes of grain to their global clients and deprived the state of an essential revenue source.
As economic activity stagnates and material costs pile up, the EU is realising its multibillion-euro lines of support will fall short sometime next year. With the US out of the picture, the burden is set to fall on the European pocket.
The prospect of Russia selling diesel that had until now been sanctioned and making extra money to finance the bombs that rain down on Ukraine is particularly difficult to stomach for Kyiv and its allies. It also raises serious questions about how much the US can be trusted to provide security guarantees for the post-war scenario.
And yet, Europe’s collective assessment remains that there is still more to lose than to gain from breaking away from the Americans.
“What we need to do is refocus and redouble our efforts in keeping pressure on Russia,” Ireland’s Foreign Minister Helen McEntee said on Monday.
“Our priority has to be to maintain that pressure, but also to maintain our channels with the US, because this is not going to be achievable without the support of the US.”
Just as news of the diesel deal broke, senior officials from Ukraine, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Commission and NATO were in Miami, Florida, for a round of talks hosted by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s special envoys.
The meeting was the first of its kind since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, which has absorbed the White House’s foreign policy and relegated Ukraine to the second row.
“We will continue to engage with our partners and also with the US in bringing this war to a close, and the latest example of this has been the talks on Friday in Miami,” the Commission’s chief spokesperson said, describing the meeting as a “positive step”.
Europe initially struggled to secure a seat at the negotiating table as Trump and Putin marched ahead with their private calls. It took months after European countries established the “Coalition of the Willing” for them to be brought into the US-led negotiating process.
The statements from Brussels confirm that retaining a seat at the table where Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state and Europe’s security architecture will be decided takes precedence over any diplomatic slight, however pointed or public.
Zelenskyy, whose country is already suffering blackouts ahead of a winter expected to be the harshest yet of the war, agrees that the transatlantic alliance must prevail, notwithstanding the deals that might be cut behind its back.
“An energy ceasefire and other steps to reduce escalation and guarantee security are truly needed here – in reality, not just on Truth Social,” Zelenskyy said.
“We need to end Russia’s war. We need to guarantee security. We need to stand together. Europe and the United States.”