A defeat for Pedro Sánchez could reshape the balance of power inside the EU institutions and further weaken the centrist majority that has traditionally underpinned European integration.
The loss of the last centre-left government in a major member state could strengthen conservative forces and make progressive lawmakers less willing to cooperate across the aisle.
On Monday, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap general election for 29 November, after parliament rejected two housing decrees on Friday.
His government, widely seen as the last major bastion of progressive policies in Europe, was already under pressure from corruption scandals, the unresolved migration crisis in Ceuta and protests over the housing shortage.
A defeat could have significant repercussions in Brussels. Several EU officials told Euronews, on condition of anonymity, that the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group in the European Parliament would likely adopt a more confrontational stance.
Destabilisation
Sánchez’s supporters say it is too early to write him off. He defied expectations after the 2023 election, remaining in power at the head of a minority government backed by Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties.
Current polls, however, suggest the centre-right Popular Party and far-right Vox could secure a majority, making another Sánchez-led minority government harder to assemble.
EU officials with direct knowledge of the matter said the campaign itself was unlikely to have a major impact on European politics, beyond some symbolic votes in the European Parliament.
One immediate test is the re-election of Sánchez ally Iratxe García Pérez (Spain/S&D) as head of the S&D group, the Parliament’s second-largest political group. No challenger has emerged, although the deadline for nominations is 13 October.
The bigger consequences could come after the election, particularly if Sánchez loses office. The S&D would then have fewer incentives to compromise with the European People’s Party (EPP), EU officials said.
“The group would be more sharply critical towards [Commission President] von der Leyen’s agenda,” one EU official told Euronews, adding that centre-left lawmakers would face fewer political constraints with Sánchez in opposition in Madrid.
Another EU official said the links between Madrid and Brussels had become unusually close, with Sánchez at times appearing to set the tone for the wider S&D group.
Shaking majority
The European Commission, led by President Ursula von der Leyen, currently relies on a parliamentary majority made up of the centre-right EPP, centrist Renew Europe and the centre-left S&D. The Greens/EFA also broadly support the Commission, despite not being part of the coalition agreement.
Those centrist forces have traditionally formed the political backbone of European integration. But the rise of parties on the far left and far right could prevent them from securing a majority in the next European Parliament.
With one of the EU’s largest socialist delegations potentially leaving government in Madrid, progressive MEPs could face greater pressure to challenge deals with the EPP.
“Sánchez was a huge stabilising factor. He was the main guarantor of von der Leyen, always pushing to find a compromise with the European People’s Party,” an EU lawmaker told Euronews, asking not to be named.
The first institutional test could come with the mid-term reshuffle, which was planned on the assumption that socialist António Costa and Roberta Metsola (Malta/EPP) would remain presidents of the European Council and European Parliament respectively.
Without the Spanish Socialists in government, the S&D could find it harder to resist a symbolic challenge to Metsola, potentially from Katarina Barley (Germany/S&D).
The EPP is backing a third mandate for Metsola, who is popular among MEPs. Under an informal agreement reached by centrist political groups at the start of the legislature, the S&D is due to hold the Parliament presidency.
But the shift in Madrid could have wider consequences. With Sánchez, a key sponsor of Costa, gone, the EPP could also seek to claim the European Council presidency.
Right-wing shift
“If Spain’s Prime Minister were to come from the centre-right PP (EPP) in the future, S&D’s influence would be diminished in the European Council in a way that we haven’t seen since at least the early 1990s,” Tobias Gerhard Schminke, founder of the election observatory Europe Elects, told Euronews.
Only Denmark, Lithuania and Malta would then have centre-left governments. Sweden’s September election could add another centre-left prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, who has so far failed to form a government.
With Sánchez out of office, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen would become the senior progressive leader. Her migration policy, which is closer to the right, has already put her at odds with Sánchez and caused tensions within the S&D.
Sánchez has also become a prominent dissenting voice on issues including migration, Israel, US President Donald Trump, defence spending and the green agenda.
Critics say von der Leyen’s majority is already showing signs of strain, with the EPP regularly forming alternative majorities with right-wing lawmakers on issues including deforestation, corporate sustainability and migration.
At the same time, some socialists fear that bringing down von der Leyen could produce an outcome even less favourable to the centre-left as more EU member states shift to the right.
“It is an extremely risky situation. The EU without its social democratic pillar changes fundamentally. That alters the historic balance for decision-making in the European Parliament,” another EU lawmaker said.