Nearly 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Asia are scheduled to arrive in Europe in the coming months, according to trade intelligence company Kpler. The shipments should reduce the risk of shortages, but prices are likely to remain high, said George Shaw, Kpler’s senior insight analyst for distillate markets.
“Jet fuel will likely be subject to higher prices, especially as it is deeply linked to the diesel market, which is becoming even tighter and experiencing record prices recently,” Shaw told Euronews.
Last week, the average European jet fuel price rose to $207.56 (€176) a barrel, the highest of any region and 27.8% above the previous month’s European average, according to the International Air Transport Association’s fuel price monitor.
The figure is a regional refinery-price assessment and does not necessarily represent the price paid by individual airlines.
Jet fuel has become more expensive because of higher crude oil prices and widening refinery margins—the difference between the cost of crude and the price of the finished fuel.
Europe is particularly vulnerable because it relied heavily on jet fuel imports from the Middle East before the disruption to production and shipping routes. It has since turned increasingly to South Korea, Nigeria and the United States.
These additional imports have so far prevented a widespread physical shortage and should help Europe through the final quarter of the year, according to Shaw.
“Q4 should see less tightness than earlier in the year,” he said, adding that European aviation demand normally begins to fall significantly in November.
The seasonal decline reduces the likelihood of airlines or airports being unable to secure enough fuel, but it does not remove the pressure on prices.
IATA declined to comment on how the latest increase could affect European airlines and passengers.
South Korea becomes a major supplier
Kpler’s latest monthly data put European jet fuel imports at an average rate of approximately 672,000 barrels per day in September, including movements between European markets. South Korea, Nigeria and the United States together accounted for around 60% of the total.
As September was not yet over, the figures covered shipments that had arrived when the data were supplied, rather than a final full-month total.
Kpler’s figures also show that approximately 1.31 million tonnes of jet fuel moved from the Asia-Pacific region to Europe between July and September. South Korea accounted for around 1.14 million tonnes, or almost 87% of the total.
A further 900,000 tonnes from South Korea and elsewhere in Asia are scheduled to reach Europe over the coming months, Shaw said.
Although imports from the US have recently declined, American inventories remain comparatively high. According to Kpler, this should allow suppliers to respond if a shortage emerges as Europe’s peak aviation season ends.
European refiners have also increased production. Combined with additional supplies from the US and Nigeria, this “staved off a shortage”, Shaw said.
The International Energy Agency reached a similar conclusion earlier this year, saying that refining capacity in Europe, Nigeria and the US had helped ease pressure on the aviation-fuel market.
Smaller airports remain vulnerable
Kpler identified the UK and France as the European markets most vulnerable to renewed disruption because both are major consumers and importers of aviation fuel.
Its September data put UK imports at an average rate of approximately 177,000 barrels per day, making it the largest destination covered. France received around 73,000 barrels per day.
The Netherlands received approximately 118,000 barrels per day, although some of that fuel may have been distributed elsewhere through the country’s storage and trading hub.
But securing enough fuel for a country does not guarantee that it will reach every airport. Aviation data and analytics company Cirium says smaller airports would be the first to face shortages if deliveries were disrupted again.
That happened at Italy’s Brindisi airport on 6 April, when commercial aircraft could no longer refuel normally. The local supplier fell short of the fuel deliveries it had agreed to make. Fuel was reserved for state aircraft, air ambulances and search-and-rescue flights.
Six other Italian airports were rationing fuel during the same week, according to Cirium. Most aircraft were limited to 2,000 litres, less than an hour’s fuel for a Boeing 737.
Italy was not short of jet fuel overall: the country consumed 14.5% more between March and May than during the same period last year.
“Major hubs have avoided fuel shortages this year. Smaller airports have not,” Mike Malik, chief industry officer at Cirium, said in a report.
Smaller airports tend to have fewer suppliers, less storage and fewer alternative delivery routes, leaving regional and short-haul operators with less room to adapt.
How Europe replaced the missing fuel
Cirium estimates that European jet fuel imports from outside the region were 22% lower between March and May than during the same three months of 2025, and Kpler’s figures broadly support this finding.
Yet consumption across the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy fell by just 0.2% over the same period.
Europe filled the gap in three ways. Refineries increased the proportion of crude oil turned into jet fuel, traders secured additional cargoes from the US and Nigeria, and suppliers drew fuel from storage.
“Europe closed the gap by running refineries differently and emptying its tanks. Neither of those works a second time,” Malik said.
He warned that these safeguards have weakened. Refineries cannot keep increasing jet fuel production indefinitely, while drawing down stocks leaves less fuel available to deal with another disruption.
What needs to happen for pressure to ease?
The IEA’s September Oil Market Report said continuing disruption in the Gulf and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was preventing oil flows from returning to normal. It expects a full recovery in supplies from Middle Eastern producers to be delayed until 2027.
According to Shaw, more refinery capacity needs to return, and greater volumes of aviation fuel must once again pass through the Strait of Hormuz before pressure on jet fuel and diesel markets can ease substantially.
For European airlines, the more immediate risk is therefore higher operating costs rather than widespread fuel shortages or grounded aircraft.
Whether passengers ultimately pay more will depend partly on how long prices remain elevated and how much fuel individual airlines bought in advance at previously agreed prices.
Airlines for Europe, which represents major European airline groups, had not responded to Euronews’ request for comment at the time of publication.