North Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President Hendrik Wüst (CDU) is frequently mentioned, but he has elections in his populous home state coming up in April — so the timing isn’t great for him. An alternative would be Markus Söder of the Christian-Social Union, the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, but he isn’t short of critics. Other, less probable potential candidates are Hesse’s Minister President Boris Rhein (CDU) and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU).
However, should the elections Sunday be a total disaster for Merz’ conservatives — the party could even miss the 5% hurdle to enter parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for the first time in any state election — frustration within the CDU/CSU could boil over and lead to broad calls for Merz to resign.
The showdown does not necessarily have to happen Sunday but could follow within the next days or weeks. Should Merz accept that fate, he could inform German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier of his intention to step down. Steinmeier would then most likely ask him to remain in office in a caretaker function until a new chancellor is elected by parliament.
However, this ain’t easy: Any successor for Merz would need the votes of the CDU/CSU’s coalition partner, the Social Democrats, who would likely ask concessions in return — triggering a time-consuming renegotiation of the coalition treaty. It also means Merz could still remain in power for months and represent Germany on the international stage, for example in EU budget talks.
Adding to the complications, the coalition’s majority in the Bundestag is thin: There’s always a risk of defectors during the secret ballot, as happened to Merz himself during the first election round last year.
Likelihood: