Montenegro has repeatedly said he will not enter into a deal with the far right. On Tuesday he urged voters to ensure Portugal gets a conservative government by voting for his coalition instead of for Chega. However, Montenegro’s stance doesn’t rule out forming a government if the far-right group’s leader, the former sports commentator André Ventura, were to offer his backing with no strings attached. Ventura, for his part, has argued voters want a deal to be forged “among all the right,” and suggested that if Montenegro isn’t willing to entertain an agreement with Chega, he could be replaced by a more willing member of his party.
Another possibility could see Montenegro rescued by Santos, who has said he would be willing to make a center-right government “viable” for the sake of the country’s stability.
4. Weakened left
If, instead, the Socialists score the most votes, the rest of Portugal’s left-wing parties are expected to coalesce around a minority government led by Santos. Montenegro says that he will not attempt to form a government if his party doesn’t win on Sunday.
PORTUGAL NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLL OF POLLS
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
Montenegro has not explicitly agreed to reciprocate Santos’ offer of support for a prospective minority government, but were parts of the center-right to abstain, the left could potentially overcome the nay votes from the far-right.
5. Divided parliament
None of the candidates running in this election are entertaining the possibility of holding repeat elections, which means that for the immediate future, Portugal will likely have to live with a sharply divided parliament — and a far right with whom no one officially wants to work.
Assuming one of the blocs manages to form a minority government, passing legislation promises to be complex. Montenegro has said that if he isn’t prime minister, he will be open to negotiating key bills like the annual budget on a case-by-case basis. Santos has similarly implied that he’d be open to dialogue for the sake of the country’s stability.