Appetite for Vox
Over the past decade, the far-right Vox party has evolved from a fringe group into a major political force — and, now, a plausible coalition partner in a national PP government.
In contrast to when national elections were last held in Spain, Vox has a clear track record of teaming up with the PP at the local and regional levels. The two parties currently govern together in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León and Andalusia, and previously ruled in Valencia and Murcia.
Within those governments, Vox has successfully pressured the PP into adopting tougher migration policies and denouncing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s Green Deal. Some PP-Vox governments have also replaced policies on violence against women with a broader “intra-family” framing that waters down the gender-specific nature of such crimes, and rolled back LGBTQ+ protections.
In 2023, Sánchez used the prospect of a PP-Vox government to spook voters into backing his candidacy, but it looks less likely that strategy can pack such a punch this time. Vox has expanded its political representation in several elections over the past three years, suggesting the party may no longer carry the same electoral stigma.
But the PP will nonetheless have to tread lightly. Although its clearest path to power involves a coalition with Vox, saying so may turn off moderate voters. The worse the center-right party performs, the more power its eventual far-right partners will have to determine policy.
The open wounds
There are two unresolved issues that could shake up the election: the Ceuta migration crisis and the ongoing corruption cases involving members of Sánchez’s inner circle.