A turbulent year has seen voters send a shockwave. Who used it best to secure influence in Europe?
2024 saw multiple political shockwaves: that some EU leaders rode, and others were submerged by.
Elections from Paris to Bucharest, an ongoing war, an economy that continues to disappoint, and a shock victory by Donald Trump in US elections are all causing an extended political headache.
Some politicians managed to use that to their advantage, and wield influence over the Brussels machine – while others were left floundering.
Euronews looks at the winners and losers from a turbulent year.
1. THE WINNERS
Donald TuskThe pushback
Poland, long the EU’s problem child, has surged back into fashion under the leadership of Donald Tusk.
A leading member of the European People’s Party to which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also belongs, Tusk is closely aligned with Brussels on the key issue of Ukraine. He’s also pledged to bring his country back into the fold after the Law and Justice Party raised EU alarm bells with its judicial reforms.
He’s not immune from domestic tensions: his right-wing rivals have fallen in the polls since being swept out of power in December 2023, but they’re still snapping at his heels.
In spite of that electoral threat, or perhaps because of it, he’s been able to exert significant clout in Brussels.
One of the first actions of the new Commission, just days after it took office, was to green-light Tusk’s controversial plan to suspend asylum rules and effectively permit migrant pushbacks.
Pedro SánchezBrussels influencer
Though from the other side of the political spectrum, Spain’s Prime Minister, alongside Tusk, is looking like one of the more stable of Europe’s centrist leaders. (It’s all relative).
On the whole, voters gave an anti-establishment message at June EU elections, but left his 20-strong delegation of MEPs largely untouched. Despite being in power since 2018, his delegation is still one of the biggest forces in the Parliament’s influential Socialist grouping.
He’s been able to transform that into Brussels influence. Hot on the heels of his finance minister Nadia Calviño gaining the top job at the European Investment Bank in 2023, he also negotiated one of the most sought-after portfolios at the European Commission: Teresa Ribera now controls both the EU’s antitrust policy and climate agenda.
Mario Draghi and Enrico LettaCasting a long shadow
These two former Italian Prime Ministers may no longer attend the European Council – but they’ll cast a long shadow over Brussels’ work.
This year, both issued influential reports bemoaning Europeans’ stuttering economic growth, which is trailing the US, with actions ranging from a new subsidy fund to a rollback of regulations.
That message was heard loud and clear, embedded in the job descriptions of each new European Commissioner. The threat of further economic damage from Trump’s tariffs only makes it more salient.
2. THE LOSERS
Emmanuel MacronParis pandemonium
By any account, France’s president had a catastrophic year. June EU elections saw his far-right rivals the National Rally surge to take 30 out of 81 seats; the snap elections he then called led to the loss of his centrist majority in the National Assembly, too.
A first attempt to form a government, under centre-right former EU Commissioner Michel Barnier, collapsed as he attempted to seek consensus on a 2025 budget. It’s not clear his successor, Macronist François Bayrou, will fare better – though Paris is under pressure from Brussels to slash one of the highest deficits in the eurozone.
Once seen as among the strongest and most pro-European of national leaders, Macron now seems set to be a lame duck.
Olaf ScholzThe motor U-turns
Germany’s Chancellor took the wheel in 2021, after a long period of relative stability under Angela Merkel, for whom he’d served as finance minister.
But fractures within his coalition – comprising his own socialist party, Greens and liberal FDP – proved hard to manage, often ricocheting to Brussels.
Germany was traditionally seen as the motor that drives the EU forward.
But repeated U-Turns on EU laws – mainly caused by the FDP getting cold feet on issues such as petrol car phaseouts and corporate due diligence – led some to conclude the bloc’s biggest member was no longer a reliable partner.
Domestic tensions came to the fore in November, when the FDP withdrew from the government in a dispute over fiscal policy, forcing Scholz to call early elections for February.
Klaus IohannisThe power vacuum
For Romania’s President, the issue isn’t so much that he’s had to stand down – he reached his limit of two five-year terms – as the lack of clarity over what comes next.
The first round of presidential elections held in November saw a surprise win for far-right nationalist Călin Georgescu.
The country’s Supreme Court annulled the results, citing foreign meddling, and the election will have to be re-run – forcing Iohannis to issue reassurances about his country’s continued stability.
Iohannis’ own future plans seem just as murky. At one stage tipped for an EU top job, he also put himself forward for the NATO post, but lost out to Rutte.
3. ONES TO WATCH
Mark RutteA mixed bag
It’s fair to say Mark Rutte had a mixed year. In July, the liberal had to step down after a remarkable 14 years as Dutch Prime Minister; his party then entered a fragile coalition with the Freedom Party of Geert Wilders, breaking previous taboos about alliances with the far-right.
Shortly after, he was taking up the reins at NATO: a distinguished appointment, but perhaps also a poisoned chalice, as the transatlantic military alliance steers through choppy waters.
NATO has been strengthened by new members Finland and Sweden, and its defensive purpose has perhaps never been more important as Russia gears to a war economy.
But it could also be holed below the waterline by its biggest member, with Trump threatening to withdraw military support.
Viktor OrbánThe outlier
Hungary’s leader is hardly Brussels’ flavour of the month.
His EU presidency, normally a valuable showcase, met with howls of protest and a boycott, after he visited Moscow and Beijing claiming to represent the bloc.
Luxembourg courts have fined him €1 million per day for failing to implement asylum laws; he’s lost his strongest ally after Warsaw’s change of government, and is being chased in the polls by former ally Péter Magyar.
But, like it or not, he’s played his hand in Brussels. His – frequently exercised – veto over Ukraine policy has won him few friends, but undoubtedly gave him leverage.
After years in the wilderness that followed him being pushed out of the EPP, he also successfully forged a far-right group alongside Marine Le Pen’s National Rally; with 86 MEPs, the Patriots for Europe group is the third biggest in the Parliament. A likely confluence of views with a future Trump administration could help extend his influence further.
Keir StarmerThings can only get better
July elections saw centre-left Starmer storm to victory in the UK, based on a promise to improve economic and security relations with the EU.
After years of wrangling over a Brexit deal which then-PM Boris Johnson then immediately set about breaking, the UK’s relations with Brussels are arguably so low that they can only get better.
As Europe faces up to its many defence and economic challenges, the idea of closer ties with a nuclear power and significant trade partner should, in theory, resonate in Brussels.
But Starmer has said he won’t rejoin the bloc’s single market, and the steps he’s taken so far – including an October meeting with von der Leyen – have been cautious.
